What needs to go right and how long will it take for you to accomplish what you want to accomplish? Almost anything worth fighting for requires meeting a lot of major milestones along the way. The question is how big is the upside and what’s the probability of meeting those milestones. Important things to consider when evaluating a company or considering a career path.
Update 4/1: James Altucher calls it the “conspiracy theory:”
When I was 19 I wrote a chess program using an idea called “conspiracy theory”. The idea was: if too many things had to conspire to make a move good, then the move is no good.”